This non-penalty expected goals model uses data sourced from Sportify which uses info about the location of a shot, the individual quality of the player taking the shot, and the placement of the shot. (Yeah, I know...)
This non-penalty xG model tends to undershoot actual non-penalty goals by ~0.3 goals per 2016/17 PL fixture. Use with caution, tread lightly, fistful of salt etc..
Key
GF Delta = Goals For - xG for (positive number = over performance)
GA Delta = Goals Against - xG Against (Negative number = under performance)
xSh% = xG for/Shots For (some people call this xG/per shot for some reason)
xSv% = xG Against/Shots Against
xPDO = xSh%+xSv%
Sh% Delta = Actual Sh% - xSh% (positive number = over performance)
Sv% Delta = Actual Sv% - xSv%
PDO Delta = Actual PDO - xPDO
Sh% = Non-Penalty Goals For/ Non-Penalty Shots For
Sv% = 100- Non-Penalty Goals Against/ Non-Penalty Shots Against
| xG For | xG Against | XG +/- | xG Ratio | GF Delta | GA Delta | Goal +/- Delta | xSh% | xSv% | xPDO | Sh% Delta | Sv% Delta | PDO Delta | Actual NPG %’s | Act Sh% | Act Sv% | Act PDO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 61.7 | 36.8 | 24.9 | 62.6 | 11.4 | 2.8 | 14.1 | 11.0 | 91.4 | 102.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 2.7 | Arsenal | 13.0 | 92.0 | 105.1 |
| Bournemouth | 39.9 | 58.4 | -18.5 | 40.6 | 8.1 | -6.6 | 1.5 | 9.0 | 89.4 | 98.4 | 1.8 | -1.2 | 0.6 | Bournemouth | 10.8 | 88.2 | 99.0 |
| Burnley | 29.7 | 51.8 | -22.1 | 36.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 92.2 | 99.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.0 | Burnley | 8.5 | 92.3 | 100.8 |
| Chelsea | 57.6 | 27.7 | 29.9 | 67.5 | 24.4 | -3.3 | 21.1 | 10.0 | 91.4 | 101.3 | 4.2 | -1.0 | 3.2 | Chelsea | 14.2 | 90.3 | 104.5 |
| Palace | 39.8 | 46.5 | -6.8 | 46.1 | 6.3 | -14.5 | -8.2 | 9.3 | 91.0 | 100.3 | 1.5 | -2.8 | -1.3 | Palace | 10.7 | 88.2 | 98.9 |
| Everton | 46.0 | 44.3 | 1.7 | 50.9 | 13.0 | 3.3 | 16.3 | 9.2 | 90.0 | 99.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 3.4 | Everton | 11.8 | 90.8 | 102.6 |
| Hull | 29.0 | 58.8 | -29.8 | 33.0 | 5.0 | -10.2 | -5.2 | 7.3 | 90.5 | 97.8 | 1.2 | -1.6 | -0.4 | Hull | 8.5 | 88.9 | 97.4 |
| Leicester | 40.2 | 45.5 | -5.3 | 46.9 | 3.8 | -13.5 | -9.7 | 9.4 | 91.8 | 101.1 | 0.9 | -2.4 | -1.6 | Leicester | 10.3 | 89.3 | 99.6 |
| Liverpool | 60.3 | 36.0 | 24.3 | 62.6 | 10.7 | -3.0 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 88.2 | 97.7 | 1.7 | -1.0 | 0.7 | Liverpool | 11.2 | 87.2 | 98.4 |
| Man City | 69.5 | 26.0 | 43.5 | 72.8 | 3.5 | -10.0 | -6.5 | 11.1 | 91.3 | 102.4 | 0.6 | -3.3 | -2.8 | Man City | 11.7 | 88.0 | 99.6 |
| Man United | 54.9 | 25.7 | 29.2 | 68.1 | -3.9 | 0.7 | -3.2 | 9.3 | 92.8 | 102.1 | -0.7 | 0.2 | -0.5 | Man United | 8.7 | 93.0 | 101.6 |
| Middlesbrough | 27.7 | 48.2 | -20.5 | 36.5 | -2.7 | -0.8 | -3.5 | 7.9 | 91.2 | 99.2 | -0.8 | -0.2 | -0.9 | Middlesbrough | 7.2 | 91.1 | 98.2 |
| Southampton | 42.5 | 35.2 | 7.3 | 54.7 | -4.5 | -6.8 | -11.3 | 7.8 | 91.8 | 99.6 | -0.8 | -1.6 | -2.4 | Southampton | 7.0 | 90.2 | 97.2 |
| Stoke | 40.6 | 43.1 | -2.5 | 48.5 | -3.6 | -11.9 | -15.5 | 9.5 | 92.0 | 101.6 | -0.8 | -2.2 | -3.0 | Stoke | 8.7 | 89.8 | 98.5 |
| Sunderland | 28.0 | 55.8 | -27.8 | 33.4 | -4.0 | -9.2 | -13.2 | 7.2 | 91.7 | 98.9 | -1.0 | -1.4 | -2.4 | Sunderland | 6.2 | 90.3 | 96.5 |
| Swansea | 37.2 | 53.9 | -16.7 | 40.8 | 4.8 | -10.1 | -5.3 | 9.2 | 89.5 | 98.7 | 1.2 | -2.0 | -0.8 | Swansea | 10.4 | 87.5 | 97.9 |
| Tottenham | 56.7 | 32.1 | 24.6 | 63.9 | 22.3 | 8.1 | 30.4 | 8.6 | 90.8 | 99.4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 5.7 | Tottenham | 12.0 | 93.1 | 105.1 |
| Watford | 32.9 | 49.2 | -16.3 | 40.1 | 4.1 | -15.8 | -11.7 | 7.9 | 90.8 | 98.7 | 1.0 | -2.9 | -2.0 | Watford | 8.8 | 87.9 | 96.7 |
| West Brom | 36.7 | 46.2 | -9.6 | 44.2 | 5.4 | -1.8 | 3.6 | 9.2 | 91.0 | 100.2 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 1.0 | West Brom | 10.5 | 90.7 | 101.2 |
| West Ham | 43.8 | 52.2 | -8.5 | 45.6 | 0.2 | -6.8 | -6.5 | 8.9 | 89.5 | 98.4 | 0.0 | -1.4 | -1.3 | West Ham | 9.0 | 88.1 | 97.1 |
| LGE AVE | 43.7 | 43.7 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 9.1 | 90.9 | 100.0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 0.0 | LGE AVE | 10.2 | 89.8 | 100.0 |
